Andrew Scott and Paul Mescal in ALL OF US STRANGERS. Photo by Parisa Taghizadeh, Courtesy of Searchlight Pictures. © 2023 20th Century Studios All Rights Reserved.
Parisa Taghizadeh
Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS
2024 Oscars Predictions:
Best Adapted Screenplay
Weekly Commentary (Updated Jan. 18, 2024): Based on conversations with voters, adapted screenplay is the place where we can be most surprised by snubs and inclusions, although awards enthusiasts think the five is cemented with “American Fiction,” “Barbie,” “Killers of the Flower Moon,” “Oppenheimer” and “Poor Things.”
L.A. Film Critics showed much love for international titles, one being Andrew Haigh’s supernatural drama “All of Us Strangers,” which landed a clutch win for best screenplay. In the expanded best picture era (after 2009), every LAFCA screenplay selection has translated to Oscar’s attention. Those include five Oscar winners – “The Social Network” (2010) and “Argo” (2012) in adapted screenplay and “Spotlight” (2015), “Get Out” (2017) and “Promising Young Woman” (2020) in original screenplay. This stunning statistic has stayed with me all season, leaving me to believe that one of the presumed top five is vulnerable to a snub.
In addition, both “All of Us Strangers” and “The Zone of Interest” made it onto the BAFTA list, which was helped by “Barbie” included in original screenplay. One of those could steal a slot from a film like “Killers” or perhaps even “American Fiction” and “Oppenheimer.” “Fiction” got a nice boost with SAG noms and the CCA win.
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Oscars predictions in all categories.
The 96th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 10.
Listed writer credits are not final. The Academy ultimately determines the official nominees.
And the Predicted Nominees Are:
- “Barbie” (Warner Bros.) — Greta Gerwig, Noah Baumbach (based on ‘Barbie’ by Mattel)
- “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures) — Tony McNamara (based on the book by Alasdair Gray)
- “American Fiction” (MGM) — Cord Jefferson (based on “Erasure” by Percival Everett)
- “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures) — Christopher Nolan (based on the book by Kai Bird, Martin J. Sherwin)
- “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures) — Eric Roth, Martin Scorsese (based on the book by David Grann)
Next in Line
- “All of Us Strangers” (Searchlight Pictures) — Andrew Haigh (based on the book by Taichi Yamada)
- “The Zone of Interest” (A24) — Jonathan Glazer (based on “The Zone of Interest” by Martin Amis)
- “Origin” (Neon) — Ava DuVernay (based on “Caste: The Origins of Our Discontents” by Isabel Wilkerson)
- “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures) — Phil Lord, Christopher Miller, Dave Callaham (based on the character created by Marvel Comics)
- “Society of the Snow” (Netflix) — J. A. Bayona, Bernat Vilaplana, Jaime Marques, Nicolás Casariego
Other Top-Tier Possibilities
- “Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret” (Lionsgate) — Kelly Fremon Craig (based on the novel by Judy Blume)
- “Dumb Money” (Sony Pictures) — Rebecca Angelo, Lauren Schuker Blum (based on the book by Ben Mezrich)
- “Ferrari” (Neon) — Troy Kennedy Martin (based on the novel by Brock Yates)
- “The Taste of Things” (IFC Films/Sapan Studio) — Tran Anh Hung (based on the novel by Marcel Rouffe)
- “BlackBerry” (IFC Films) — Matt Johnson, Matthew Miller (based on the book by Jacquie McNish, Sean Silcoff)
- “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.) — Marcus Gardley (based on the novel by Alice Walker and the musical by Brenda Russell, Allee Willis, Stephen Bray, Marsha Norman)
- “The Boys in the Boat” (MGM) — Mark L. Smith (based on the book by Daniel James Brown)
- “Priscilla” (A24) — Sofia Coppola (based on the book by Priscilla Presley, Sandra Harmon)
- “Nyad” (Netflix) — Julia Cox (based on “Find a Way” by Diana Nyad)
- “Eileen” (Neon) — Ottessa Moshfegh, Luke Goebel (based on the novel by Moshfegh)
Also In Contention
- “Freud’s Last Session” (Sony Pictures Classics) — Mark St. Germain (based on the play by Germain)
- “The Burial” (Amazon Studios) — Doug Wright, Maggie Betts (based on the book by Jonathan Harr)
- “The Killer” (Netflix) — Andrew Kevin Walker (based on graphic novel by Alexis Nolent, Luc Jacamon)
- “How to Blow Up a Pipeline” (Neon) — Ariela Barer, Jordan Sjol, Daniel Goldhaber (based on the novel by Andreas Malm)
- “Next Goal Wins” (Searchlight Pictures) — Taika Waititi, Iain Morris (based on the book by Mike Brett, Steve Jamison)
- “Creed III” (MGM) — Ryan Coogler, Keenan Coogler, Zach Baylin (based on characters by Sylvester Stallone)
- “Wonka” (Warner Bros.) — Simon Farnaby, Paul King (based on characters created by Roald Dahl)
- “Mothers’ Instinct” (Neon) — Sarah Conradt (based on the novels “Mothers’ Instincts” by Giordano Gederlini and Olivier Masset-Depasse and “Behind the Hatred” by Barbara Abel)
- “Foe” (Amazon Studios) — Iain Reid, Garth Davis (based on the book by Reid)
- “The Marvels” (Marvel Studios) — Nia DaCosta, Megan McDonnell, Elissa Karasik (based on the characters by Marvel Comics)
All Eligible Titles (Alphabetized by Studio)**
- “A Haunting in Venice” (20th Century Studios) — Michael Green
- “Priscilla” (A24) — Sofia Coppola
- “When You Finish Saving the World” (A24) — Jesse Eisenberg
- “The Zone of Interest” (A24) — Jonathan Glazer
- “The Burial” (Amazon Studios) — Doug Wright, Maggie Betts
- “Foe” (Amazon Studios) — Iain Reid, Garth Davis
- “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures) — Eric Roth, Martin Scorsese
- “Across the River and Into the Trees” (Bleecker Street) — Peter Flannery
- “Trolls Band Together” (DreamWorks Animation) — Jonathan Aibel, Glenn Berger, Elizabeth Tippet
- “My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3” (Focus Features) — Nia Vardalos
- “BlackBerry” (IFC Films) — Matt Johnson, Matthew Miller
- “The Taste of Things” (IFC Films/Sapan Studio) — Tran Anh Hung
- “The Super Mario Bros. Movie” (Illumination) — Matthew Fogel
- “Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret” (Lionsgate) — Kelly Fremon Craig
- “The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes” (Lionsgate) — Michael Lesslie, Michael Arndt
- “John Wick Chapter 4” (Lionsgate) — Shay Hatten, Michael Finch
- “Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quanumania” (Marvel Studios) — Jeff Loveness
- “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” (Marvel Studios) — James Gunn
- “The Marvels” (Marvel Studios) — Nia DaCosta, Megan McDonnell, Elissa Karasik
- “American Fiction” (MGM) — Cord Jefferson
- “The Boys in the Boat” (MGM) — Mark L. Smith
- “Creed III” (MGM) — Ryan Coogler, Keenan Coogler, Zach Baylin
- “Eileen” (Neon) — Ottessa Moshfegh, Luke Goebel
- “How to Blow Up a Pipeline” (Neon) — Ariela Barer, Jordan Sjol, Daniel Goldhaber
- “Mothers’ Instinct” (Neon) — Sarah Conradt
- “Origin” (Neon) — Ava DuVernay (based on the book by Isabel Wilkerson) **
- “Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget” (Netflix) — Karey Kirkpatrick, John O’Farrell, Rachel Tunnard
- “The Killer” (Netflix) — Andrew Kevin Walker
- “Leave the World Behind” (Netflix) — Sam Esmail
- “Nimona” (Netflix) — Robert L. Baird, Lloyd Taylor
- “Nyad” (Netflix) — Julia Cox
- “Pain Hustlers” (Netflix) — Wells Tower
- “Society of the Snow” (Netflix) — J. A. Bayona, Bernat Vilaplana, Jaime Marques, Nicolás Casariego
- “Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One” (Paramount Pictures) — Christopher McQuarrie, Erik Jendresen
- “Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem” (Paramount Pictures) — Seth Rogen, Evan Goldberg, Jeff Rowe, Dan Hernandez, Benji Samit, Brendon O’Brien
- “Next Goal Wins” (Searchlight Pictures) — Taika Waititi **
- “Nightbitch” (Searchlight Pictures) — Marielle Heller **
- “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures) — Tony McNamara
- “Theater Camp” (Searchlight Pictures) — Noah Galvin, Molly Gordon, Nick Lieberman, Ben Platt
- “Dumb Money” (Sony Pictures) — Rebecca Angelo, Lauren Schuker Blum
- “The Equalizer 3” (Sony Pictures) — Richard Wenk
- “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures) — Phil Lord, Christopher Miller, Dave Callaham
- “Freud’s Last Session” (Sony Pictures Classics) — Mark St. Germain
- “Ferrari” (Neon) — Troy Kennedy Martin
- “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures) — Christopher Nolan
- “Barbie” (Warner Bros.) — Greta Gerwig, Noah Baumbach **
- “Blue Beetle” (Warner Bros.) — Gareth Dunnet-Alcocer
- “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.) — Marcus Gardley
- “Wonka” (Warner Bros.) — Simon Farnaby, Paul King
- “The Little Mermaid” (Walt Disney Pictures) — David Magee
2022 category winner: “Women Talking” (MGM) — Sarah Polley (based on the novel by Miriam Toews)
** indicates an unconfirmed release date in 2023 or could campaign in the lead or supporting categories. All release dates are subject to change.
Oscars Predictions Categories
BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | BEST ACTOR | BEST ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT
About the Academy Awards
The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.
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