Both Best Original Screenplay and Best Adapted Screenplay are full of beautiful writing, with a variety of genres and writers being acknowledged for their work this year.

We have previous Oscar winners nominated, such as Josh Singer, who co-wrote “Maestro” with Bradley Cooper; previous nominees such as “Oppenheimer” scribe Christopher Nolan and “Poor Things” penman Tony McNamara; and we have a whole bunch of first-time nominees such as “Past Lives” writer and director Celine Song.

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But… could we have two first-time nominees win both writing categories? Oscar history says this is unlikely; this has not happened a single time in the last 10 years. There have, however, been five instances in both categories where rookie contenders have won the Oscar.

Best Original Screenplay

• Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert for “Everything Everywhere All at Once” in 2023

• Emerald Fennell for “Promising Young Woman” in 2021

• Bong Joon-ho and Han Jin-won for “Parasite” in 2020

• Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly, and Nick Vallelonga for “Green Book” in 2019

• Jordan Peele for “Get Out” in 2018

Best Adapted Screenplay

• Sian Heder for “CODA” in 2022

• Barry Jenkins and Tarell Alvin McCraney for “Moonlight” in 2017

• Adam McKay and Charles Randolph for “The Big Short” in 2016

• Graham Moore for “The Imitation Game” in 2015

• John Ridley for “12 Years a Slave” in 2014

But, none of those instances overlapped. The last time both writing categories were awarded to first-timers was in 2011 when David Seidler won Best Original Screenplay for “The King’s Speech” and Aaron Sorkin took home Best Adapted Screenplay for “The Social Network.” Could this happen again this year, however, for the first time in 13 years? Let’s take a look.

The Best Original Screenplay nominees are “Anatomy of a Fall” (Justine Triet and Arthur Harari), “The Holdovers” (David Hemingson), “Past Lives” (Song), “Maestro” (Singer and Cooper), and “May December” (Samy Burch and Alex Mechanik). Singer and Cooper are the only previous nominees here and we don’t think they’ve got a good chance of winning this category, so we fully expect a first-time nominee to win here.

“May December” is right on the outskirts while Song could theoretically win for “Past Lives” although it still seems unlikely. Instead, it looks like a battle between “Anatomy of a Fall” and “The Holdovers.” Triet is also nominated for Best Director and she and Harari won Best Screenplay at the Golden Globes. They are in the best position to win this category while Hemingson could also easily win for “The Holdovers.” Either way, this award will go to a rookie.

The Best Adapted Screenplay nominees are “Oppenheimer” (Nolan), “Barbie” (Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach), “American Fiction” (Cord Jefferson), “Poor Things” (Tony McNamara), and “The Zone of Interest” (Jonathan Glazer). Nolan, Gerwig, Baumbach, and McNamara are all previous nominees.

Glazer, who is also nominated for Best Director, is in joint fourth place (with “Poor Things”) in our Oscars odds chart for this category. Conversely, Jefferson is coming on strong. He won Best Adapted Screenplay at the Critics Choice Awards over, among others, “Oppenheimer,”

We are currently predicting “Oppenheimer” to win this category while “Barbie,” which was placed in Original Screenplay at most other awards groups, is also in second place. It looks to be a “Barbenheimer” battle here and “Barbie” could easily usurp “Oppenheimer” to win this prize. Voters may want to make up for Gerwig’s Best Director snub by awarding her this writing win while Gerwig and Baumbach won Best Original Screenplay at the Critics Choice Awards.

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